Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Musing on Florida

Watching the pre-closing time ballyhoo on tv, I got to thinking about what today means for the election in general. Probably not as much as the yakking heads seem to indicate. The GOP race is still unrealistic, since Huckabee and Rudy are still around, sucking votes from the top two; once they're out (since the McCain-Romney numbers in FL seem relatively even in the polls/exit poll summations), and we're into the country at large, things should start to clear up- whether clearing up means a clear winner, or two contenders limping into the convention is a toss-up.)

On the side of goodness and light, the Dem primary is weird. Since it's been disowned by the party, and the candidates didn't show up to campaign, it's going to be a tug of war between name recognition (nod to Hillary) and grass roots enthusiasm (nod to Obama and Edwards.) I think the thing to watch for as most important to the Dems is turnout. If, despite the lack of any campaigning, we have good turnout for the vote, that's a big indicator of party enthusiasm. If the Dem turnout is, like NH, vastly larger than the GOP, then it's a GREAT sign for the general.

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