Jesus Nothing, Politics As Usual One

The SC primary seems to be over, and John McCain (R-POW) has won. Huckabee finished second, with Thompson and Romney more or less tied for third (Giuliani finished sixth behind Paul). In Nevada, Hillary edged Obama on the Dem side, while Romney cleaned the field (truth be told, he was the only R to campaign in NV, besides Paul, who finished a DISTANT second.)

I think it's way too early to determine who the candidates will be, but it's becoming clear who they WON'T be.... barring the direct intervention of Jesus (which still probably wouldn't sway some of the evangelical crowd....), Rudy Giuliani will permanently remain the ex-mayor of NYC and nothing more (well, possibly a number on a prison uniform if some serious investigating is done....) Fred Thompson gave what sounded like the first three halves of a 'dropping out' speech this evening, but never got to a point, so he's out even if he's not officially out yet. Duncan Hunter is out, officially. It was never, ever, except in his own wildest dreams, ever going to be Ron Paul. The wild card here is Huckabee. If he can do WELL in Florida, he's got a shot; if not, stack him up next to Rudy.

So, it's pretty much down to McCain and Romney. That will be entertaining, watching the pander fest as two basic centrists try to convince the Repug base that yeah, man! I'm as bat-shit crazy as you peeps! The Repug establishment is more behind Romney, and he does have all the money in the world, but McCain plays better with most of the base (the bat-shit crazies....) so it'll be a slugfest for the ages. I'm betting on a brokered convention with no one getting a majority.

The caucuses in Nevada today really didn't tell us much, and if they told us anything, it's bad news. Edwards' reported numbers are terrible (altho not as bad as they look, due to the rules arcana of caucuses.) But even without the draining off of his numbers, his raw numbers weren't good at all (10ish percent!) So, it pretty much all comes down to SC; if he can't do well (25-30%) there, he's done. If he does, then he's still got a shot. I don't want to come off as racist here, but the best bet is that HRC and Obama split the black vote, and their pandering to get there, sends the white vote to Edwards. It's not a pretty way to win, but at this point, I'll settle.